Volume: Vol. 9 No. 2 | Page:
61-73
AN ECONOMETRICS ANALYSIS OF THE NEXUS BETWEEN EXTERNAL DEBT SERVICE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
Abstract:
This study examines the effect of external debt service on economic growth of Nigeria. For a developing country like Nigeria that is faced with scarcity of capital to grow economically, there is the need to borrow abroad to supplement domestic savings. Nigeria has been experiencing manifestation of the adverse effects of external debts which are low capacity utilization which results to low production, backward technology, high and chronic unemployment rate, high dependence on oil production and export of primary products which has led to decrease in economic growth over the years. In view of this, the study is aimed at assessing the effects of external debt on economic growth of Nigeria. The study also examines external debt trend of Nigeria and the effect of macroeconomic variables on external debt in Nigeria. The study relied on time series data which was gathered from CBNstatistical bulletin. Co-integration and test and error correction model were used as the estimation technique. The study showed thatincrease in external debt has a drastic negative effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and that increase in external debt can discourage private investment and alsomacroeconomic variables can lead to external debt. The study recommended among others that the economic reform must target macro-economic stability, removal of structural distortions and creation of conducive environment for enhancing domestic production capacity.
Olawumi Ojo Rufus (Ph.D), Olufemi Olufunke Bosede,
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 2 | Page:
47-60
IMPACT OF STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA
Abstract:
This study investigates the impact of stock market performance on the economic growth of Nigeria. Gross domestic product was used as proxy of economic growth while All-Share Index, market capitalisation and total securities listed were used as proxies of stock market performance. The study employed time series annual data from 1980 to 2016, which constitute 36 years’ observations. Multiple regression analysis and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were used to analyse the data. The result showed that ASI, MCAP and TSL have positive and significant impact on GDP of Nigeria. The study also revealed that stock market capitalisation had the highest short-run and long-run positive impact on economic growth while total listed securities had the least. In view of this finding, the study recommends that the Nigerian stock market operators, investors and government should reposition the market and implement economic policies that can enhance the stock market in order to attract more investment for economic development. Further studies are also needed to assess the impact of stock market performance on economic growth.
Idachaba Odekina Innocent, Olukoton G. Ademola Ph.D.
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 2 | Page:
38-46
OIL PRICE VOLATILITY AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN NIGERIA
Abstract:
This study examines the effect of oil price volatility on macro-economic variables in Nigeria as it affects consumer price index, gross domestic product, government expenditure and real effective exchange rate using monthly data covering the period 1975-2014. The empirical analysis is carried out by an unrestricted VAR approach. Generalized impulse response function and generalized forecast variance decomposition were employed to analyze the effects of oil price volatility on the Nigerian economy. The findings revealed that oil price volatility does not affect GDP and inflation rate in Nigeria but does significantly affect real exchange rate and government expenditure. There is a strong need for policy makers to focus on policies and strategies to meet the macroeconomic structure of the Nigeria economy with specific focus on alternative source of government revenue.
Oziegbe, T. R. (Ph.D)
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 2 | Page:
28-37
EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC FACTORS ON PRICES OF SELECTED CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS IN NIGERIA
Abstract:
This paper examined the trend in market prices of some construction materials over a 15-year period in Nigeria and compared the trend with trends in some economic variables during the same period. The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of the trend in the prices of construction materials relative to the behaviour of the nation’s economic variables. Market prices for the chosen materials were obtained from a wide range of sources. Limited project sites and some selected government institutions were also consulted. Market prices were considered for a base period in 2001 in Osun and Kwara States to determine the extent and nature of the relationship with key variables that researchers’ literature has suggested are price-affecting macroeconomic variables. The study showed an increase in the prices of materials, and a trend in increase in the data. The challenges in price predictability and variance occurred in inverse proportion to both the inflation rate and the GDP.
Lawal P.O., Oyedele A.J., and Olayemi O.O
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 2 | Page:
14-27
OIL RESOURCES, EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR OIL RESOURCE ABUNDANCE COUNTRIES
Abstract:
There is a paucity of empirical studies directly addressing oil resource abundance, exchange rate and economic growth in developing countries. The few existing studies are resource abundance do not consider exchange rate, oil resources and economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to revisit the relationship that exists among these macroeconomic variables in developing countries where exchange rate regimes and policy frameworks are not just unstable but always tilted in favour of the developed economies. For this purpose, this study utilised panel data set obtained from 1980 Q1 to 2012 Q4 for resource abundant countries and fixed series representing the macroeconomic variables of interest. The study used both fixed and random effects models to examine the nexus that exists among oil resource abundance, exchange rate and economic growth. The study focused on panel data based on empirical findings from selected resource abundant countries. This study reveals a statistically insignificant relationship between exchange rate as a macroeconomic variable and economic growth in the selected countries as positive and negative at the disaggregated level. It further reveals that oil resource has a strong positive effect on economic growth and exchange rate in oil resource abundant countries. The study also established the indirect effect of oil resource on economic growth and foreign exchange variation. Therefore, it is recommended that policies aimed at foreign reserves accumulation in resource abundant countries should be considered as a means of guiding exchange rate to promote economic growth in the countries. To determine the role of exchange rate and oil resources on economic growth, the relationship should be examined using an indirect method of analysis, needs to be based on indirect effect of oil resource on exchange rate and economic growth.
Mathew ADAGUNODO, Samson OLANIYAN, Rasheed OYAROMADE, Oluwatobiloba OLADELE
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 2 | Page:
1-13
COMMODITY PRICE VOLATILITY AND OUTPUT GROWTH; A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF NIGERIA AND GHANA
Abstract:
This study examines the relationship between commodity price volatility and Output Growth in Nigeria and Ghana between 1990 to 2014. The Data for the study was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria and Ghana Statistical Bulletins, World Bank Online Data Base and International Monetary Fund Online Data Base. The study employs E GARCH and Structural Vector Autoregressive Model as estimation techniques. Findings from the study show that unstable commodity price has adverse impact on Output Growth in Nigeria and Ghana except for oil prices which have positive and significant impact. Commodity price impact on Output Growth is higher in Nigeria than Ghana. Based on the research findings, the study therefore recommends that government should adopt Export promotion economic policies and diversify the economy in both Nigeria and Ghana to achieve sustainable economic growth.
Ogunsakin, Sanya (Ph.D) and Lawal, Naheem Abiola
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 1 | Page:
86-99
THE POLITICAL OUTCOMES OF ETHNICITY AND RELIGIOUS INTOLERANCE IN NIGERIA
Abstract:
The marauding of ethno-religion cleavages have become the pervading situations in all corners in Nigeria political system to the extent that hat has grown, it are killing the political development in Nigeria. This has a serious impact on peaceful human co-existence, leadership composition opportunity, ethnic domination, inequality, and party formations, among other things. The study investigates the impact of ethno-religious cleavages in Nigeria. The totality of menace arising from these ethno-religious, tribal and ethnic development of communities against one another limit one of the central states. The paper used content analysis to explore the impacts of combined factors of ethno-religion cleavages on development. The paper recommended among others that the paper explored various ethnic and religious cleavages in Nigeria for peaceful human co-existence.
Ojo Olawale Ariyo, Kehinde Johnson Daodu, Opeyemi Adanri
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 1 | Page:
75-85
EXCHANGE RATE AND PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT IN NIGERIA
Abstract:
The strong influence of exchange rates on investment and other macroeconomic variables makes it one of the most important phenomena in an open economy such as Nigeria. Exchange rate is one of the economic indicators which directly affect investment in Nigeria; as such its role in the overall economic objectives cannot be underestimated. The nature exchange rate has been a serious problem in developing economies like Nigeria where the naira keeps on losing its strength, thereby reducing its value and adversely affecting their trading capacity. The deregulated exchange rate system adopted by Nigeria since 1987 is one in which her foreign exchange market has really determined the naira value and the flow of funds in the foreign exchange market. This has greatly affected economic growth and living standard of people, thus making the role of exchange rate very important in investment planning. Over the years, studies have revealed that depreciation of the exchange rate has had a distorting effect on economic growth and has hindered private investment through inflation. The study examined the relationship between exchange rate and private sector investment in Nigeria using time series data that Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) served as proxy for growth. The result of the study revealed that there is a significant relationship between the variables. The result also showed that there is a significant relationship between Exchange Rates and Private Sector Investment in Nigeria. It was recommended that government should adopt appropriate monetary and fiscal policy in order to stabilize the exchange rate and improve on the country’s foreign exchange market. It was also suggested that having a consistent and favourable exchange rate regime will guarantee stability and growth in private sector investment. It is also recommended that a more flexible exchange rate regime is the solution to the country’s current unstable exchange rate environment which has consistently failed to enhance the desired public basic investment.
3
OSUNTUYI Busayo Victor, OLUPONA Elizabeth Adebola
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 1 | Page:
63-74
Logistics Management Practices and Performance of Nigerian Manufacturing Firms
Abstract:
The study investigated the effect of logistics management on the performance of manufacturing firms in Nigeria. These were with a view to providing information on the logistics management practices that enhance performance in the Nigerian Manufacturing Industry. Primary data were sourced for the study. The data were obtained through administration of a multi-stage to 210 respondents of selected firms in the Nigerian manufacturing sector. Multi-stage sampling technique was used for this study. Purposive sampling technique was used in selecting the Managing Directors and Heads of Accounts, Purchasing, Transport and Stores of the 42 firms; cluster was used in selecting the firms, and stratified and convenience sampling techniques were used for the overall respondents. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis. The results showed that logistics management in Nigeria were weak and weak logistics management practices were hindering firms in meeting their customers’ demand, and competing in the industry. The results further showed that logistics management constituted by inventory warehousing (𝑡 = 1.94; 𝑝 < 0.05), logistics outsourcing (𝑡 = 2.11; 𝑝 < 0.05), and transportation management (𝑡 = 2.03; 𝑝 < 0.05) had significant effect on performance of firms in the Nigerian manufacturing sector.
KAZEEM Y. K OLATUNJI, O. D. (Ph.D) JAYEOLA, O ADEWA, K. A. (Mrs.)
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 1 | Page:
38-54
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA: A STRUCTURAL VAR APPROACH
Abstract:
The paper investigated the impact of the recent global financial crisis on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria. Specifically, the impact of international shocks to domestic output, government expenditure, exports and domestic credit to the economy were examined. The paper employed secondary data for the period 1970:1-2009:4 and the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) econometric technique was employed in the analysis. The study explicitly found that following the global financial crisis, an international shock to the domestic economy immediately led to a slight and insignificant decline in output, export demand and domestic credit, while government expenditure showed no response at the earlier period of the crisis. This implies that though the crisis has not seriously affected the Nigerian economy in the short-run, its impact on the long run may be devastating. The study suggested active government regulation to cushion the effect of the crisis.
T.P. Ogun
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 1 | Page:
55-62
CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN NIGERIA: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
Abstract:
The growing concern over the threat to world food security calls for a re-examination of the factors that affect agricultural productivity. This threat becomes more worrisome because of the high prevalence of diseases associated with hunger and poor nutrition intake. This paper examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Carbon emission was used to capture the effect of climate change. We examine the effect of climate change on the short-run and long-run output of the agriculture (agricultural productivity) both in the short and long run. Other variables that significantly affect agricultural productivity are arable land and water supply, while labour has an insignificant impact on agricultural productivity in the long run. We recommend that the Nigerian government should step up awareness programs to reduce carbon emissions. To do this, this can be achieved by placing strict sanctions on those that emit carbon dioxide beyond the limit as seen in Lima 2014 conference. Government should also place a ban on the importation of genetically modified crops and subsidized agricultural products. We recommend an outright removal of agricultural subsidies and shielding farmers from adverse market conditions.
Ekpenyong Udom Imoh, Ogbuagu Matthew Ikechukwu
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Volume: Vol. 9 No. 1 | Page:
28-37
FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOW, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
Abstract:
The fact that the contribution of agriculture is germane to economic growth of Nigerian nation and that foreign capital is a gap filler for inadequate domestic finance in the sector cannot be overemphasized. This paper examines the impact of foreign capital inflow into agricultural development and subsequently the agricultural sector growth in Nigeria. The study adopted annual secondary time-series data from 1970 to 2014 sourced mainly from Statistical Bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and International Development Fund (IMF) and adopted the Engle Granger technique of Cointegration and Error Correction Model (ECM). It was based on the data collected in order to determine the effect of foreign capital inflow on agricultural productivity. The agricultural production was found to have significant impact on economic growth of Nigeria. It was found to have increased the gross domestic product. Also, it was revealed that in the second lag, human capital development had a significant impact on agricultural sector in Nigeria. The policy implications of the findings were that Nigerian government should provide adequate and enabling environment for foreign investors in the agricultural sector. This will guarantee availability of foreign capital for increased agricultural production and hence the provision of raw materials for the industrial sector. Finally, the government should strengthen the technical knowledge of the farmers and reduce the rate of interest on agricultural loans.
Ojevumi Johnson Sunday (Ph.D), Shariimakin Akinwumi and Arowolo, O. H
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